Rubin: Egypten vill ha demokratiskt valda islamister

Pew Research Center genomför globala opinionsundersökningar och har nu gjort en undersökning om Egypten: Egyptians Remain Optimistic, Embrace Democracy and Religion in Political Life.

Despite economic difficulties and political uncertainty, Egyptians remain upbeat about the course of the nation and prospects for progress. Amid rancorous debates over the presidential election and the shape of a new constitution, most Egyptians continue to want democracy, with two-in-three saying it is the best form of government. 

Barry Rubin bloggar om detta: What Do Egyptians Want? A Democratically Elected Islamist Dictatorship

Yes, friends, it’s once again time for that exciting game of Spin the Polls by the Pew Foundation. Here are the rules:

  • Rule 1: Pew does a good job on the poll itself.
  • Rule 2: The Pew analysis ignores or misunderstands the implications of the poll.
  • Rule 3: The Western media and government misread the poll, often misinterpreting the results into the exact opposite of what they actually mean. They then adopt the wrong policies.
  • Rule 4: If correctly interpreted the polls are a gold mine that can help us comprehend the present and predict the future. […]

If I were writing the headline it would be: “Egyptians Want Radical Islamist State More Than Anything Else.”

Och fortsätter man att läsa Pews egen sammanfattningstext, som följer på de hoppfulla orden ovan, får man det ganska väl bekräftat:

Egyptians also want Islam to play a major role in society, and most believe the Quran should shape the country’s laws, although a growing minority expresses reservations about the increasing influence of Islam in politics. When asked which country is the better model for the role of religion in government, Turkey or Saudi Arabia, 61% say the latter. (min fetstil)

61% av Egyptierna ser Saudi som deras drömsamhälle. Rubin argumenterar för sin tes och skriver vidare om något mycket intressant:

The Pew poll’s headline says that Egyptians are optimistic but that they also believe the economic situation is not good. Half of them claim things have gotten worse since Mubarak fell. Why then do 53 percent (albeit 65 percent) believe the country is headed in the right direction?

The answer is that they are happy with the political direction—toward radical Islamism—but do not think it will improve their material lives. They make a distinction between material benefit and spiritual-ideological preference. Such a choice is never understood in the West, especially by those who argue that everyone wants the same things in life, so an Islamist regime must deliver prosperity or fall, and consequently that radicals must moderate in order to fill their people’s stomachs. 

Remember what Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, architect of Iran’s revolution, said back in 1979: People in the West don’t understand that we didn’t make this revolution to lower the price of watermelons. 

Om man tvivlar på Rubins tolkning av Pews rapport går det bra att läsa rapporten i sin helhet.

Svenska mellanösterkorrar som Cecilia Uddén och Bitte Hammargren rapporterar ofta från Egypten. De är hänförda över den politiska processen, men pratar sällan om vart den leder. Det vore relevant att få med den dimensionen i rapporteringen.

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